Research

Thinking, in writing.

Market commentary, macro outlooks, and notes on options and market structure. We publish what we would want to read: short on prediction, long on mechanics.

Featured · Market Structure

The Gamma Regime: How Dealer Positioning Shapes Index Behavior

When dealers are long gamma, volatility is sold and ranges compress. When they are short, hedging flows amplify every move. Understanding which regime prevails is often more useful than any directional forecast.

June 2026 · 14 min read

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Macro

May 2026

Liquidity Is the Only Macro

Growth and inflation matter, but the marginal price of every asset is set by the marginal dollar. A framework for reading net liquidity across the Treasury, the Fed, and the repo complex.

11 min read · Read the article →

Federal Reserve

May 2026

The Fed’s Reaction Function After the Cutting Cycle

Markets price paths; the Fed prices pain. What the 2026 easing cycle reveals about the committee’s true tolerance for inflation — and where the curve is mispriced because of it.

9 min read · Read the article →

Options

April 2026

Volatility Skew and the Price of Insurance

Skew tells you what the market fears; term structure tells you when. Reading both together turns the options surface into a positioning survey conducted with real money.

12 min read · Read the article →

Commodities

March 2026

Commodities and the Capital Cycle

Under-investment is the most reliable bull case in markets. Where a decade of capital starvation across energy, uranium, and critical minerals leaves supply against structurally rising demand.

13 min read · Read the article →

Quarterly Letter

April 2026

Q1 2026 — Letter to Partners

On the discipline of doing less: our first quarter, the positioning that drove it, and why the best trades of the year were the ones we declined to make.

18 min read · Read the article →

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