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Equity Research · Realized Position

United States Antimony

UAMY · — · Critical Minerals

Rating

Realized — Closed at Target

Entry

$10.72

Exit

$15.00

Realized Return

+39.9%

Holding Period

Oct 2025

Quan Pham, Senior Analyst · M’Squared Capital Research · Closed 13 Oct 2025

A supply-shock play on a mineral with no easy Western substitute.

Summary

We owned US Antimony into China's antimony export restrictions and defense-driven demand. The name moved quickly and we took the gain within days. (Note: the exit level is an estimate pending your confirmation of the realized price.)

Business Overview

US Antimony produces antimony and related critical minerals used in defense — ammunition and flame retardants — and industrial applications.

Investment Thesis

  1. 01

    An export-control shock

    Chinese antimony export curbs created a genuine Western supply gap in a strategically important mineral.

  2. 02

    Defense-critical demand

    Antimony is a defense-critical input with relatively inelastic demand, which magnifies a supply shock.

  3. 03

    Small-cap torque

    A small, asymmetric position that responded sharply to the supply narrative — sized as a shock trade.

Valuation & Price Target

We realized roughly $15, about +40%, into the supply-driven spike. The exit level is an estimate; confirm it and we will finalize the record.

Catalysts

  • Export-restriction headlines
  • Defense procurement announcements
  • Antimony price spikes

Key Risks

  • Micro-cap volatility and thin liquidity
  • Commodity-price reversal
  • Operational execution

Bottom Line

A supply-shock winner, realized fast. Roughly +39.9% (exit level to be confirmed).

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This note is the opinion of M’Squared Capital and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Price targets and entry and exit levels reflect the firm’s proprietary views and realized transactions; they are not forecasts of future results. The firm may hold, add to, reduce, or close any position at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.