Equity Research · Realized Position
Rocket Lab
RKLB · — · Space Systems · Launch
Rating
Realized — Stopped Out
Entry
$85.00
Exit
$60.00
Realized Return
−29.4%
Holding Period
Jan – Mar 2026
Quan Pham, Senior Analyst · M’Squared Capital Research · Closed 30 Mar 2026
We chased the number-two launch franchise too high and paid for the entry.
Summary
We re-entered Rocket Lab at $85 on Neutron optimism and backlog momentum. Multiple compression in high-beta space names and Neutron timeline risk hit the stock, and we stopped at $60. A good long-term story bought at a poor price.
Business Overview
Rocket Lab operates Electron (small launch), is developing Neutron (medium-lift), and runs a growing space-systems business.
Investment Thesis
- 01
The story is intact
Neutron and space systems remain a credible long-term franchise — the business is fine.
- 02
The mistake
We paid a rich price into momentum, and high-beta space de-rated hard with the broader risk trade.
- 03
Discipline held
We stopped at $60 rather than hope, and will revisit on execution and a better entry.
Valuation & Price Target
We stopped at $60, roughly −29%. This was a valuation and timing loss, not a thesis break.
Catalysts
- Neutron timeline concerns
- High-beta risk-off
- Space-sector multiple compression
Key Risks
- A rich entry price
- Program-execution risk on Neutron
- Space-sector volatility
Bottom Line
Right company, wrong price and timing. Realized −29.4%.
This note is the opinion of M’Squared Capital and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Price targets and entry and exit levels reflect the firm’s proprietary views and realized transactions; they are not forecasts of future results. The firm may hold, add to, reduce, or close any position at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.